An Analysis of Mathematical Models to Improve Counter-Drug Smuggling Operations

The Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF South) serves as the center for counter-illicit trafficking operations against Central and South American drug cartels. JIATF South has jurisdiction over an enormous area and has alimited number of search and interdiction assets. Thus, mathematical models and tools to improve the search planning process could provide an immense benefit. This book contributes to a multi-institution effort to develop these modelsand tools. The goal is to provide enhanced situational awareness to operators about the likely location of smuggling targets and recommend search plans.This book combines a probability model and an optimization model into a user-friendly tool that operators and researchers can easily use. We also develop methods to convert the output of the probability model into inputs to the optimization model. This could be especially important if environmental factors play a significant role in the routes taken by drug smugglers. We examine how accurately this conversion algorithm reproduces the actual paths taken by smugglers. More importantly, we evaluate how well the search plan generated by the conversion algorithm performs. We find, in most cases, that the conversion algorithm provides excellent results; however, there are some situations where the conversion algorithm performs poorly.