Growth Triumphant: The Twenty-First Century in Historical Perspective

The sweep of human history and it's follow-through to the mid-21st Century are the subject of this remarkably short (154 pages excluding reference material) yet lucid volume. Easterlin abstracts the major trends in economic history, focussing on "the epoch of modern economic growth" and it's relationship with human population dynamics. Analyzing these trends into a series of interrelated technological, organizational, and behavioral factors, he constructs a framework for projecting his view of the human condition over the next 50 years: "The future, then, to which the epoch of modern economic growth is leading is one of never ending economic growth, a world in which ever growing abundance is matched by ever rising aspirations, a world in which cultural differences are leveled in the constant race to achieve the good life of material plenty" (p. 153). Lest critics be too hasty to reject this as so much cheerleading for a conventional Western world view, let them note that the author also questions whether this future will increase human happiness - he concludes that "in the end, the triumph of economic growth is not a triumph of humanity over material wants; rather, it is a triumph of material wants over humanity." (p. 154)The major strength of this work is that it presents a concise, non-technical understanding of economic and social development as that understanding has been gained through the work of major theorists in the field of economic demography, such as Kuznets, Solow, Rostow, and Easterlin himself. Yet these theories are not accepted uncritically: the author places each in contex and considers several alternatives, then presents comparative and historical data to resolve the theoretical questions in simple intuitive terms. In this manner he quickly covers the long-contested grounds of international relations, the growth of national economies and supporting social institutions, health and population growth, and the relationship between material progress and happiness. Drawing conclusions from the resolution of one theoretical problem with emipircal evidence, he proceeds to the next in a cumulative sequence that culminates in a compelling, logically integrated argument to support his view of the future. This sequential construction is especially apparent in his explanation of how the rise of institutions conducive to techical innovation together with the accumulation of wealth preceded the wide spread application of health technology and subsequent "mortality revoultion", which cut mortality rates in half in just over a century. Following from the decline in mortality, he examines a model of decisions regarding family size and shows how the "fertility transition" follows as a logical consequence of the mortality revolution. He makes a solid case to support the expectation of continued economic growth with slowing population growth, and in the process introduces the reader to the major ac