Riding the Bull, Beating the Bear: Market Timing for the Long-Term Investor

My background is as an auditor and computer programmer. I read every book I find on stock market timing and run them through personal computerized back testing. Very few market timing systems work - at least the ones that are published.Mr. Yanis uses a simple moving average to time the market but with a couple technique twists. Most moving average systems used by themselves cause excessive trades and false signals. The Y-Process system also suffers from that but to a lesser extent. The meat of this book is all in one chapter. The book is well written and the system's weaknesses honestly reported. The actual returns are documented. He uses a hard to understand method to show buy/sell points and to calculate returns - it should have been done differently. The timing process requires tracking a few numbers but nothing complicated and it has beaten buy and hold by avoiding major downturns. What's more, this book was published in 2000 prior to the worst of the market collapse and would have gotten you out close to the top. As of September 2002 it's still signaling to stay clear of stocks. If nothing else, this may provide a way to determine when the current bear market has spent most its energy. I'd say that's worth the price of admission, wouldn't you?