The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower

The only problem I have with the book is the unproven assumption that the US made a blunder by going to Iraq because it enabled Iran, kind of unintended consequences. The USA in fact intentionally and knowing went to Iraq in order to strengthen Iran and create and critical Shiite Sunni balance or imbalance that led to all the hell that we witnessed in the last 15 years. The US knows it, Iran Knows it and the Arabs know it. In fact, this open secret is so well known that even children in the Middle East know it. When the Middle East hears of an impending war between the US and Iran, there is a collective yawn followed by a derisive smile. The writer's advice to patch it up with Iran because it is too strong and powerful to mess with is politically motivated by the desire to see Obama at the time rush to normalize relation with Iran.

If you're REALLY interested to know what time has reserved for world in the Middle East, then this is definitely the book to read. This book provides you with an analysis of why Iran is the hegemon of the Middle East, how it has succeeded to maneuver herself to this position against all the odds, and why USA supporting other countries of Middle East is simply illogical and bad investment. Highly recommended for those who want to avoid media skewed stereotypes and want to understand the power structure in Middle East.

As an Iranian in exile whom left Iran in my middle teens, I found this book both insightfull, and very easy to read. The author has clearly done his homework, and given an unbiased, thoughtfull and logical plan of action for U.S. and the western world to follow. I must admit being an Iranian I felt a bit proud of what Iran has done, even though I don't agree with process they had to go to achieve their goals thus far. U.S. must stop listening to AIPAC and other special interest groups and clearly define its purpose and a path to its prosperity. This book begins that process for a better future for all Americans and perhaps Iranians as well.

Baer's book starts out by making a number of seemingly wild and unfounded claims; unfortunately, (for the U.S., not readers) he then proceeds to document them quite well. Baer sees Iran as engaged in a soft takeover of the Middle East - it now controls a significant portion of Iraq, is extending influence over Jordan and Egypt, and has the ability to wreak havoc over the entire Middle East. Baer's conclusion is that destroying Iraq was the greatest strategic blunder this nation has ever made, and we should now ally ourselves with Iran instead of continually goading it. Our first problem in dealing with Iran is that we don't understand it. Its population growth has fallen from 3.2% in 1986 to 1.2% in 2001, only slightly higher than the U.S. Further, its religious parties generally only receive about 10% of the vote. Iran's current belligerence can be traced not to innate aggression, but the fact that wars are being fought on two of its borders. American are not hated in Iran - just that we occupy large portions of the Middle East. Iran got the confidence that it can beat the West from its 1982-2000 experience in Lebanon, when its proxy Hezbollah forced the Israelis to retreat. Iranian surrogates have already started to take control of Iraq's oil by stealing hundreds of thousands of barrels/day, as well as getting Iraq's Shia oil minister to cancel Kurds' oil contracts because Iran does not want to strengthen that group. Saddam's T-72 tanks and helicopters were all that kept him from falling; without those resources, whatever regime replaces him will not be able to hold the nation together. The U.S. further acerbated control problems by allowing Iran to take over from moderate Shia clerics via assassinations and taking over various sect bank accounts. Baer expects Iran to play off the differences between Iraq's major Shia parties and use Iraqis that had been exiled to Iran, imposing its own order through money and arms. Meanwhile, its objective is to bleed the U.S. so it will not interfere with Iran. Iran has armed itself via fire-sale prices from Russia - new and refurbished tanks with heat-seeking missiles, MIG-29s with accompanying missiles, and Chinese missiles. Much of this armament is buried underground. Fiber-optic cable technology that can't be intercepted is used for communications, and of course they are well known for having learned to create EFPs (explosively formed penetrators). Finally, in 2007 Iran sent emissaries to all Gulf states telling them that if the U.S. attacks us we will destroy your oil facilities. Thus, Iran doesn't need nuclear weapons to play an important role. Iran is further strengthening itself politically and economically by signing a 25-year large natural gas contract with Turkey, and allowing Turkmenistan to transport its natural gas across Iran to markets. Baer further believes that Iran will be able to control a proposed gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan, and that a similar situation

Once again, Baer comes flying in with the sorry-but-it's-true reality of the Middle East. I've read all his books and couldn't wait to read this one. The first two dealt with exposing what Saudi Arabia is really up to and their involvement in terror and, most importantly, why it is beyond insane to call them an "ally." Now he takes on Iran and details in very convincing manner (having dealt with Iran for decades) how Iran is much more powerful in the region than we currently believe, and how all this talk of them being the third prong of the "Axis of Evil" that is going to nuke Israel is completely 9/10 thinking. He correctly summarizes how they, via Hezbollah, were able to beat Israel in the 2006 war and galvanized public support for them. He also points out, which is pretty obvious, how they have immense sway over Iraq and its Shia majority. What's eye-opening is his pointing out that Hezbollah/Iran hasn't launched a terror campaign (meaning, bombings, kidnappings) since the 80s because there's a "pragmatism" to their thinking and they realized this kind of thing wasn't helping their cause. And what is that cause? To be, and be realized, as the superpower in the region. NOT to wipe out Israel, not to do anything that the fool Ahmadinejad keeps talking about, not to eventually bring Islam to our doorstep and force it down our throats. The epiphany of the book is that Baer positions Iran not as an enemy to be attacked or feared, but rather a historic opportunity to form an alliance in the region. Time is ticking, he asserts, and do we really want to cast our lot with the zealot Sunni Muslim "takfiris" who have wreaked destruction for decades (including 9/11) and have no other goal except destruction and using the Koran as their Constitution? Because that's who we're partnered with now. Or, do we form an alliance with a country that doesn't share that ideology at all, and who can provide dividends in settling Iraq and, yes, Israel/Palestine? He makes a good case. Read and judge for yourself. I can't recommend it enough; too bad our leaders aren't reading it also. BTW: easy read. Blew through it in three days.

Robert Baer's take on the Middle East is deeply supportive, without electioneering, of the position of Barack Obama on negotiations with Iran and with other 'suspect' regimes. "If you can't talk with them, you can't know them," is the implicit wisdom of this position, to which I would add the necessary corollary that "if you don't know them, you can't talk with them effectively." Baer has the experience and credentials to assert that he knows Iran rather well, with twenty-some years in the CIA, mostly in the Middle East. Baer's central arguments depend on our willingness to consider Iran a rational, self-interested country with a structure of leadership beyond the theatrical postures that Americans take for hopeless enmity. Yes, Iran is different, and indifferent to America's self-image of exceptionalism. Yes, Iran does aspire to a leadership in the Middle East, and even to a moderate super-power role in the world at large, which the USA has been and will still be very loath to recognize. However, according to Baer, Iran's aspirations will best be realized by establishing a mode of co-existence and shared influence with the USA, and important people among the Iranians well understand that need. Once again, according to Baer, the Shia-Sunni antagonism is far more serious and determinant of conflict than Americans yet comprehend, even after the strife in Iraq. Thus the natural rival - even enemy - of Iran is not Israel but rather Saudi Arabia, and one of the reasons for the anger of Iranians toward the USA is the bed-fellow ties the USA has maintained with the Saudi autocracy. As for Israel, Iran is well aware that it can't achieve any of its true goals by provoking Israel to a full-scale attack, and there are major segments of the Iranian leadership who suppose that a negotiated settlement with Israel and the Palestinians would be in reach of a diplomatic entente between the USA and Iran. According to Baer, Iranian influence has already risen to new heights, in Lebanon especially, through Hezbollah, especially since the USA did them the favor of reducing their front-line enemies - Iraq and the Taliban - to chaos. As for a US invasion of Iran, Baer maintains that it would be an unprecedented, disastrous mistake. Iran, he says, could and would "ignite" the Gulf, utterly disrupt oil production and shipping, and very likely take the opportunity to strike against the Saudis. The effect on the world economy would be catastrophic. Thus the whole Middle East is painfully locked in a "Texas draw", a stand-off of destruction that doesn't even offer a potential victor any kind of proportionate reward. This book is sure to be controversial in the USA. I can already imagine the barrage of angry comments I'll receive on this review merely for suggesting that the book is thoughtful and deserves to be read. There's a flaw in the title, however, that I need to point out. If "the Devil we know" is Iran, then part of the problem is that we don't know this Devi