TSMC: China's Golden Goose or Poison Pill?

On a dark, calm night in the western Pacific, a gentle obsidian sea suddenly erupted in a burst of spray as a sleek metal arrow punched through the surface into the air. It instantly roared into life as flames erupted from the engine at its base and propelled the rocket straight up into the sky. As it climbed, the missile extended a set of small, stubby wings and arced over and down towards the sea as it transitioned into its flying mode. The cruise missile leveled off 100 feet over the rolling swells and sped west at 300 miles per hour towards the island of Taiwan just 40 miles away. It was the first of eight. Eight missiles. Twenty-five minutes of flying time. Four of the most advanced semiconductor fabrication plants in the world destroyed in the explosions and fires. The very foundations of American and Western economies rocked to their cores in the immediate aftermath of a devastating attack. In TSMC: China's Golden Goose or Poison Pill?, a nonfiction geopolitical futures thinking scenario as immediate as today's headlines offers a stress test on current assumptions about the underlying fault lines and motivations that could lead to conflict between Taiwan, China, and the United States. The scenario analyzes whether TSMC, the world's most advanced manufacturer of semiconductors and relied upon almost exclusively by companies from Apple to Nvidia to Microsoft, is at risk from geopolitical tensions and whether or not there are restraints or incentives to attack or defend it in a wider conflict. The analysis is a challenge to policymakers and statesmen to encourage a peaceful resolution to the fundamental conflicts over the future of Taiwan and its relationship with China before tensions lead to outright conflict that could be devastating for people and countries everywhere.